The results of the West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry elections are finally due today after a 62-day election process amid record cases of corona. Among the 5 states, Bengal has the most attention. Because this time Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress has clashed directly with the BJP and not with the Left and the Congress. The same speculation has been expressed in most exit polls that the BJP could hold Mamata to a draw.
1. Bengal
Total Seats: 294 (Voting took place on 292 seats)
Majority: 148 (147 out of 292 seats)
Who won last: Trinamool Congress
The state has polled 292 out of 294 seats. The BJP fielded candidates for 291 seats here for the first time, while it gave one seat to Sudesh Mahto's All Jharkhand Students Union Party. The last time the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha contested with the BJP was here. This time GJM is with Trinamool. Before the elections, the BJP had ousted several senior Trinamool leaders, including a Shubhendu official close to Mamata Banerjee.
Exit polls on April 29 did not show a single vote for Bengal. In 5 out of 9 exit polls, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool has been seen gaining a majority or is very close to a majority. While BJP is ahead in 3 polls. However, the loss of seats to the Trinamool is evident in all the polls and Asar could also be a hung legislature.
Voting in Bengal fell 1.5%, a concern for the Trinamool
When the 2019 Lok Sabha elections were held, the BJP had won 128 assembly seats in Bengal. While Trinamool's lead was reduced to only 158 seats. This time low voting raised the concerns of the Trinamool. This time an average of 81.59% voting took place in 8 phases. In the 2016 Assembly elections, the figure was 83.02%. That means voting is down about 1.5% this time around. A difference of 1.5% can cause a gap of several seats.
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A total of 320 employees will be counting the votes. The first postal ballot will be counted, which will last about half an hour. The EVM will then be counted and then the random count of VVpet's slips will be done. Candidates entering the counting center, their agents, staff and all will be temperature checked by a thermal gun.
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Will Congress-Left become Kingmaker?
The entire Bengal elections have been centered on Didi versus Modi, but ground reports and exit polls have also hinted that it is possible that both the Trinamool and the BJP will lag behind the majority figures in a major clash. In this, the weakest Left-Congress alliance in Bengal could play the role of kingmaker. The patch is that the Left-Congress will never go with the BJP. While the Congress may once go with the Trinamool, the Trinamool and the Left are fierce opponents of each other.
2. Assam
Total seats: 126
Majority: 64
Who won last: BJP +
Last time, the NDA came to power for the first time in Assam. But the Bodoland People's Front, which helped bring the BJP to power by winning 12 seats, this time joined hands with the Congress and the Left. There is Assam Gana Parishad with BJP. The BJP also formed an alliance with the UPLL. Here the issue of NRC i.e. National Register of Citizens is dominating. If BJP wins, CM Sarvanand Sonowal will become CM again. If the BJP loses, it will be considered an NRC effect. In Assam, the BJP alliance got a majority in all the 6 exit polls.
3. Tamil Nadu
Total seats: 234
Majority: 118
Who won last: AIADMK
For the first time, assembly elections were held here without Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi. In Jayalalithaa's absence, AIADMK had only one face as CM Palaniswami. While the face of DMK is Karunanidhi's son Stalin. Due to this, all the exit polls predicted DMK's victory this time. The AIADMK this time contested the elections with the BJP, while the DMK formed an alliance with the Congress.
4. Kerala
Total seats: 140
Majority: 71
Who won last: LDF
Interestingly, in Bengal, the Congress and the Left are contesting the elections together, while in Kerala, they are in opposition to each other. Last time, the LDF led by the Left won here. Congress is not part of it. The Congress-led UDF is the opposition coalition here. This time, the BJP fielded candidates in 113 out of 140 seats. On the other hand, BJP had won 1 seat in Kerala last time.
5. Puducherry
Total seats: 30
Majority: 16
Who won last: Congress + DMK
Puducherry is a union territory with an assembly. Here the Congress-led government collapsed last February. V. Narayanasamy could not prove a majority. Power slipped from their hands after two ministers joined the BJP and some MLAs resigned. This time BJP and AINRC in 3 exit polls and Congress + DMK in the remaining 3 polls are expected to get majority.
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